CricDigs Blogs

With only three games remaining in group B, any two of the three teams: India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh can qualify. Currently all three of them have 2 points with one win each. But Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have played only one match while India has won 1 and lost 1.

In this group, India and Sri Lanka were favorites to qualify for the Super 8s. But in the second match of group B, Bangladesh sprung a surprise by beating India. This has created a complicated scenario in Group B. Since India has already lost to Bangladesh, they cannot afford to lost any more matches, otherwise they will meet the same fate as Pakistan - they will be eliminated from the World Cup.

Bangladesh has two matches remaining. They play Sri Lanka on Wednesday and Bermuda on Sunday. For Bangladesh, if they win against Sri Lanka, then they will definitely qualify for the Super 8s. It is expected that they will beat Bermuda.

Sri Lanka also has two matches remaining. They play Bangladesh on Wednesday and India on Friday. If they beat India, they are through to the Super 8s, no matter what.

India has one match remaining, against Sri Lanka on Friday. India HAS to win this match, and hope for some other positive results so that they can go into the Super 8s.

In the above three teams, India’s situation is very interesting. As I said, India has to win against Sri Lanka to have any chance to qualify for the super 8s. If they lose, they are out of the tournament. But if they win, even then they are not assured of a Super 8 berth.

Assuming that India beats Sri Lanka on Friday and also let us assume that Sri Lanka beats Bangladesh on Wednesday. In this case, everything will rest on the result of the Bangladesh-Bermuda match. Bangladesh is expected to win that match, but the difference with which they will win is what will matter. At that point, all three teams: India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh will have the same number of points (4) and so the net run rate will decide which two teams will qualify.

India lost to bangladesh narrowly (in the 49th over) and beat Bermuda heavily (by 257 runs). In the present scenario, India does have a very good net run rate. Sri Lanka also beat Bermuda by a huge margin (243 runs) and so they also have a very good run rate. If Sri Lanka beats Bangladesh by a big margin, it will become that much more difficult for Bangladesh to qualify over net run rate.

The thing that is in Bangladesh’s favor is the fact that they play Bermuda in the last match. On that day (assuming that SL has beaten Bangladesh and India has beaten SL) Bangladesh will have an exact idea of how convincingly do they need to beat Bermuda to get ahead in the net run rate against India or Sri Lanka. They will have their task cut out, and will have to beat Bermuda by a very huge margin to secure a place in the Super 8s.

Of course, all these permutations and combinations will not be required if India loses to SL and crashes out of the tournament. Not many people will be happy with that, least of all, yours truly!